Nautical Petroleum Plc Market And Financial Performance Finance Essay - Free Essay Example

Sample details Pages: 10 Words: 3041 Downloads: 8 Date added: 2017/06/26 Category Finance Essay Type Argumentative essay Did you like this example? This report evaluates the Nautical Petroleums market and financial performance for the past two years by studying the annual reports of 2009 and 2010. The report also highlights the economic factors that the group faces to illustrate its current risks and growth. This will include the social and technological concerns related to the industry. Don’t waste time! Our writers will create an original "Nautical Petroleum Plc Market And Financial Performance Finance Essay" essay for you Create order Furthermore, the companys overall market coverage has been briefly analyzed along with its customer profile, distribution channels and the product offerings as compared to its competitors. The report will also establish the ownership and control of the business highlighting the expertise of management. Thereafter, the financials of the company will be assessed through the examination of its profitability and returns. Finally, this report will provide an investment suggestion on basis of the asset value per share given by the company. Introduction to Nautical Petroleum PLC Nautical Petroleum plc  is an independent hydrocarbon exploration and development company listed on the London AIM. The company was listed on the Alternative Investment Market (AIM) in April 2005. A 75% interest in Nautical Petroleum AG, a subsidiary of  International Energy Group AG (IEG), was transferred into Nautical Holdings Limited. This entity participated in the Reverse Takeover (RTO) in April 2005 which created Nautical Petroleum plc as a listed entity on AIM. (History, Nautical Petroleum) Nautical Petroleum plc intends to become a significant producer of heavy oil, initially in the United Kingdom Continental Shelf (UKCS) and in Europe. Currently, the companys operations span to UK, France and Ireland and the aim is to secure further heavy oil discoveries in the UKCS and EU through acquisitions, farmins and licensing rounds. (www.oilbarrel.com) Marketing and Economics INDUSTRY SECTOR MARKETS CUSTOMERS Nautical Petroleum operates in the Energy sector and its core business is trading of crude oil and refined oil products. The company has established a worldwide representation in major oil trading hubs with international activity serving a clientele which includes most of the recognized participants in the global crude oil, gas and re ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ned products markets. Nautical Petroleum undertakes physical oil trades with private and state sector oil producers, oil majors, independent traders, re ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ners, power generators and other consumers. The market for these UK heavy oils remains strong, specifically from specialist refiners. This is reflected in prices achieved for Alba, Captain and Harding (Nauticals acquisitions). COMPETITORS Nautical Petroleum competes with major players in the market like British Petroleum (BP), Shell and Elf and also with the smaller but listed companies like Enterprise Oil Plc, Falkland Oil and Gas, Northern Petroleum Plc, WHAM Energy Plc, Encore Oil Plc, etc. RGFC has to compete with a number of competitors in the UK food industry, particularly in the bakery and confectionery sector. A few of the major competitors of RGFC include Greggs PLC, Abf Grain Products Ltd, Warburtons Limited, Warburtons Holdings Limited, Rank Hovis, British Bakeries, Baxters, United Biscuits (Holdings) Plc and Allied Bakeries. SOCIAL ISSUES The major social issue related to the oil and gas industry is the pollution caused due to oil spills, both for aquatic as well as land forms. Another issue that has been highlighted by a recent study about social and environmental effects on communities which are economically dependent on the oil and gas industry is social dysfunction and biological impoverishment. The research, published in Conservation Biology, revealed that over a nine year period the number of registered sex offenders in energy boomtowns was two to three times higher than towns dependent on other industries. Other symptoms of social change seen in energy boomtowns across the western United States include the use of illicit drugs, domestic violence, wildlife poaching and a general rise in crime. The research suggests that these changes occur because of the differences between the traditional rural residents and the incoming workforce. (Rise of sexual Predators in Oil Natural Gas Boomtowns, https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/179328.php) TECHNOLOGICAL ISSUES Petroleum science has evolved from rudimentary geology to elaborate supercomputer-based calculations and 3D views of the subsurface. It has taken the drilling process from a lets try over there guessing game to the precise targeting of ever smaller pockets of fields that have already produced for half a century, as well as areas that have produced nothing before. It requires state of the art technologies to extract the hydrocarbons as well as highly skilled and competent professiona ls to manage the industry. The EP industry is using cutting technology to locate hydrocarbons and optimize efficiency in production. These technologies include the use of complex reservoir modeling and simulation, nuclear magnetism, sonic and ultra-sonic technologies, magnetic resonance, advanced chemical engineering, fluid mechanics, telecommunication, process engineering etc. As easy-oil has become a thing from the past, the industry is moving towards frontier areas to increase production. Optimizing the recovery of hydrocarbons from the existing production fields (called brown fields) remains an existing challenge. Growth and Risks of the Company Nautical has exhibited strong growth prospects and is committed to progressing both Mariner and Kraken projects to field development plan (FDP) submission and adding value to the third leg of material appraisal and exploration opportunities. Notwithstanding the growth of the company, that the fact still remains that in common with all oil and gas exploration and production operations, there is uncertainty and therefore risk associated with operating parameters and costs. Whilst costs can be budgeted with a reasonable degree of confidence, operating parameters can be difficult to predict and often outside the Groups control. In addition, other risks, including industrial accidents, technical failures, labour disputes, environmental hazards, machinery breakdown, unavailability of parts, government action, war and terrorism, are all beyond the Groups control. Oil and Gas Exploration, Production Risks and Insurance There are risks inherent in the exploration and production of oil and gas. This area of business, by its nature, involves significant risks, and hazards, including environmental hazards, industrial incidents, labour disputes, fire, drought, flooding and other natural calamities. The occurrence of any of these hazards can delay or interrupt production, increase production costs and result in liability to the owner or operator of the oil and gas asset. The Group may become subject to liability for pollution or other hazards against which it has not insured or cannot insure. Market Risk The marketability of any oil or gas discovered will be affected by numerous factors beyond the control of the Group. These factors include market fluctuations, proximity and capacity of oil and gas pipelines and processing equipment and government regulations including regulations relating to taxation, royalties, allowable production, importing and exporting of oil and gas and environmental protection. Environmental Factors The operations of the Group are dependent on environmental regulations in every jurisdiction it operates in. Environmental legislation and permits are liable to develop in a way which will require more austere standards and enforcement, augmented fines and penalties for non-compliance, stricter environmental assessments of projects and an increased degree of responsibility for companies and their directors and employees. There can be no assurances that such new environmental legislation once implemented will not oblige the Group to incur significant expenses and undertake significant investments which might adversely affect the Groups business, financial condition and operational results. Licenses and Title The Groups exploration and production activities are dependent upon the grant of appropriate licenses, concessions, leases, permits and regulatory consents which may be withdrawn or made subject to limitations. The decisions to advance explorations may call for other companies participation whose inte rests and objectives may differ from those of the Group. Volatility of Oil and Gas Prices There has been a wide fluctuation in oil and gas prices and they are affected by several factors over which the Group does not hold control, including currency exchange fluctuations, world production levels, consumption patterns and global or regional political events. The collective effect of these factors is next to impossible to forecast. Consequently as a result of the above factors, price forecasting can be difficult to predict or imprecise. Currency and Exchange Rate Fluctuations Since commodity prices are conventionally denominated in the US$, majority of the income of the Group will be expected in US$ and the Group is therefore exposed to volatility in exchange rates. Contractual risks All agreements are subject to interpretation, and some agreements are not binding. There is no guarantee that the Company will be able to enforce all its rights under its agreements or a rrangements with third parties. Competition There exists aggressive competition in the petroleum industry, mainly for the discovery and acquisition of commercially viable properties. The Group will compete with other exploration and production companies, many of which possess greater financial resources in comparison to the Group, for leases and other interests plus for the retention of qualified personnel. These factors might prove to be a hindrance for the Group to lock new exploration areas or recruit and retain talent. Financing risks The furthering of the Groups properties is based on its ability to obtain finance through the farming-out of projects, public financing or supplementary means. There is no assurance that the Group will successfully be able to obtain the requisite financing. Any additional equity financing may be dilutive to Shareholders and debt financing, if available, may entail restrictions on operating activities. In case the Group is unsuccessful i n obtaining additional finance as required, it may be required to reduce the scope of its operations or anticipated expansion. Taxation Future changes to the nature and basis of taxation may impact on the net revenues and cash flows of the Group. Political Although political conditions in the countries in which the Group may operate are generally stable, changes may occur in their political, fiscal and legal systems, which might affect the ownership or operation of the Groups interests, including, inter alia, changes in exchange rates, control regulations, expropriation of oil and gas rights, changes in government and in legislative and regulatory regimes. Liquidity of the Groups Shares The market for the Groups shares may be highly volatile and subject to wide fluctuations in response to a variety of factors which could lead to losses for Shareholders. These factors include amongst others; additions or departures of key personal, litigation if any, press, newspape r and other media reports and the results of appraisal and exploration activity. Legal Systems Some of the countries in which the Group may in the future, operate, have legal systems which are not as developed as those in established economies. In such cases, this can result in uncertainties, ambiguities, inconsistencies and anomalies, and/or difficulties in obtaining redress through the local courts, and ultimately in investment risks that do not exist in more developed legal systems. Ownership and Management The board of Nautical Petroleum Plc is led by Chairman John Conlin who is also a Non-Executive Director and joined the board in June 2009. Out of 63,408,291 ordinary shares (as on 30 June 2010), J Conlin holds nil (but holds 60,000 share options). Similarly, Finance director Will Mathers and Non-Executive Director Philip Dimmock hold zero ordinary shares but possess 200,000 and 250,000 share options instead. The highest number of ordinary shares is held by Chief Executive Stephen Jenkins and Commercial Director Paul Jennings who hold 876,096 shares each (1.38 percent) apart from holding 1,125,000 and 800,000 share options respectively. The Non-Executive Director Patrick Kennedy holds 75,000 ordinary shares (0.12 percent) and 250,000 share options. Financial Performance Evaluation: Profitability, Liquidity and Gearing PROFITABILITY The cost of sales, including impairment and operating costs of extended well test equipment, was  £157,000 in 2008 which rose significantly to  £2,500,000 in 2009. Again in 2010 it dropped to a mere  £84,000. Since the revenue for the year 2008 was zero, the group incurred a gross loss of  £157,000. Because of the significant increase in the costs and only a marginal increase of  £25,000 in sales, the loss increased to  £2,475,000 in 2009. Though, in 2010 the Groups financial position improved due to increase in sales and cost reduction, thereby limiting the gross loss to  £16,000. As a result, the Groups gross profit margin has improved from  £9,900,000 in 2009 to - £23,500 in 2010. Similarly, the net profit margin has shown a remarkable improvement from - £23,548,000 in 2009 to - £3,354,000 in 2010. Return on capital employed (ROCE) shows a similar trend. Since the Group has incurred losses through the considered period, there has been negative ROCE, though there has been a decrease in the losses and ROCE has gone up to -2.8% in 2010 in comparison to -10.5% in 2009, approximately by one fifth. LIQUIDITY The current ratio of the group was 4.4:1 in 2008 which was considerably lower compared to 24.3:1 in 2008, reflecting significant decrease in the liabilities. The liabilities of the group decreased steeply at 82.63% over the period of 2008 to 2009. But in contrast, in 2010 the assets fell sharply exhibiting a decline of 36.14% because of which the current ratio dropped to 14.2:1. This trend indicates that even though the Group has been running in loss, its ability to meet its short term financial obligations is adequate enough. The liquid or acid test ratio also represented exactly the same trend in the financial period considered. This is due to the reason that the quick assets of the Group are same as the current assets since there has not been any inventory. In terms of efficiency, the group showed an improved performance over the financial years with respect to repaying of the payables. The trade creditors show a constant reduction from  £1,806,000 in 2008 to  £504,000 in 2009 to  £312,000 in 2010. Therefore, the trade payable days has reduced from 4141 days to 1337 days from 2008 to 2010 (though it significantly reduced to 73 days in 2009). Also, the trade receivable days of the Group reduced significantly from 7114 in 2009 to 2509 in 2010, illustrating the fact that fewer funds were tied up with debtors for each  £1 of sales in 2010 than in 2009. But, since the past three years (2008 to 2010) a significant amount of approximately  £470,000 has been given on debt. GEARING Nautical Petroleum Plc is lowly geared. The annual report suggests that the business has negligible debt and non-current borrowings. The Groups borrowings, in terms of accruals and amount owed to related companies, have dropped remarkably over the three years. The gearing ratio of the group tells us that the gross gearing reduced greatly from 4.36 to 0.51 during the period from 2008 to 2009. Though, in 2010 it increased to 0.99, it still remains low. This highlights the fact that the Group has just 1% borrowing, and the business is majorly financed by equity. Attractiveness of the Groups Equity Shares Settlement as of 04/02/2011, at 5:45 p.m. Nautical Pet fractionally up, achieving a modest profit of +0.37%. After a weak start to the day at 536, above the previous sessions low, we saw steady growth as trading continued and a bullish close of 547, near the session high. In the weekly comparison, Nautical Pets trend is more pronounced than the FTSE AIM 100 Ix trend line, revealing investors greater propensity to buy Nautical Pet stock compared to the index. Status and Trend Analysis Technically, Nautical Pet is in a strong uptrend with resistance in the 561.7 area, while the most immediate support is listed at 517.7. The trading outlook is positive, with the bulls likely to target the 605.7 level (green line in the chart). Risk Analysis Heres a word of caution for risk-averse traders, who should consider this a potentially risky investment given that intraday volatility is up at 8.97. Buying or selling decisions should primarily be made in an intraday context, as daily volume has fallen to 170,167, against a volume moving average of 402,945 for the last month. The earnings per share for Imperial Tobacco Group rose from 50.6 pence to 65.5 pence from 2008 to 2009, indicating the fact that the earnings available to the shareholders increased by about 30 percent. As mentioned in 2009s annual report of the company, its adjusted earnings per share have grown by 15 percent on a compound annual basis. The dividend per share also showed a remarkable hike from 62.93 pence in 2008 to 73 pence in 2009 amounting to a 17 percent increase in the value distributed amongst the shareholders. As mentioned in the Chairmans statement in the annual report of the group: Over the past ten years we have outperformed the FTSE A ll-Share Index by 286%. With dividends reinvested,  £100 invested in Imperial Tobacco ten years ago would now be worth  £517 compared to just  £134 invested in the FTSE All-Share Index. (Chairmans Statement, Annual Report 2009) Total Shareholder return over the past ten years Graph showing Imperial Tobacco Group PLCs performance against the FTSE All-Share index for the past ten years Source: Imperial Tobacco Group, Annual Report 2009 Although the dividend yield increased to 3.18 percent, the dividend cover of the business remained constant over the year at 1.1 times. The price per earnings ratio of the group was 29.75 times, which reveals the fact that the capital value of the share is quite high compared to its current level of earnings. This reflects the market confidence concerning the future of the business and that the investors are prepared to pay more in relation to the earnings stream of Imperial Tobacco Group. But this value has dropped by 30 percent over the fiscal year. Similarly, since the market price of the share has not risen significantly in comparison to the remarkable increase in the cash flow per share, the price to cash flow ratio also dropped from 11.30 pence to 5.65 pence in 2009. Overall, the sales volume of the group has fallen in Russia, Spain, Ukraine and the US due to the rise in the counterfeit cigarette market and also because smokers generally have switched from cigarettes to cheaper tobacco in the economic slowdown. The price to earnings ratio and the price to cash flow ratios have also fallen significantly. On the other hand, the company still has a good dividend yield and strong profitability from operating activities. The PE ratio also suggests that the stock might be undervalued. Hence, considering all the parameters on the whole, it is recommended for the existing shareholders to hold their investment. For those who are yet to invest, the companys prospects look good only in the long term. Appendix INVESTMENT RATIOS Note: Market price taken as on 30th November 2009 is 1886 pence. XVI Dividend per share (DPS) = Taken from Directors Report 2008 DIVIDEND PER SHARE = 62.93 p 2009 DIVIDEND PER SHARE = 73 p XVII Earnings per share (EPS) = Taken from Income Statement 2008 EARNINGS PER SHARE = 50.6 p 2009 EARNINGS PER SHARE = 65.5 p XVIII Dividend Yield = Total Dividend/Current Market Price x 100 2009 DIVIDEND YIELD = 59.93/1886 x 100 = 3.18% XIX Dividend cover = EPS/DPS 2008 DIVIDEND COVER = 50.6/45.6 = 0.804 2009 DIVIDEND COVER = 65.5/59.93 = 0.897 XX Price Earnings Ratio = Current Market Price/EPS 2009 PRICE EARNINGS RATIO = 1886/ 63.40 = 29.75 XXI Price to Cash flow = Current Market Price/Cash flow per Share 2009 PRICE TO CASH FLOW = 1886/334 = 5.65 pence

Aids Hiv Screening Rates - 1718 Words

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Good God Essay Example For Students

Good God Essay Good GodWhen one walks through the streets of humanity, one must choose their destiny. Is it to believe in God, or to become conservative and choose not to believe?Well, the people of the world should all just creep within their minds, andchoose not to follow the Messiah onto the deceptive fields of love. These peoplebecome sicken with doubt, and unleashing them are quite easy. But the world maynever know, for the fools that are blinded with salvation still wander inoblivion. Objection number one is that, can one actually prove the existence of God? Howcan one experience divinity, without experiencing death first? No men on thisearth can! Not the Pope, Saint Anselm, nor William Paley, who actually tired toprove the existence of God. William Paley once said , If a man wandered upon ahill, and discovered a watch; who would question the fact, that the watch wascreated by a designer? Its possible that the statement is true, but a watchcant be compared to a universes creation. Paley would later say that the worldmust have a designer, meaning a God. The watch of coarse must of been createdby a designer, but the world is totally different. Its more like a carpenterbuilding a house or building. People can relate more to a building than auniverse, cause its possible that one can experience living within a house. Its not possible for anyone to live among the outside world, and think that Godcreated everything. This only proves Paleys downfall, and ideas that have noback bone! The world to be created by God is impossible, only cause man seeksmore than his environment. God cannot be proven!Belief! The question of believing, is a question of faith. This is a story offaith. Jeremiah once entered a church full of greed, and listened to the wordsof God. When the sermons of Christ ended, the preacher and his followers handeddown baskets, filled with money. Jeremiah just sat in confusion, wondering whyand where is all that money going to. As Jeremiah left the church, he over heardthe preachers wife, Now can you buy me diamond ring? Jeremiah began to weep,as the rage within him rushed throughout his mind. At home, Jeremiah told hismother about the fury within , and he spoke this: Mother! Why is the entirechurch of Christ corrupt? Why is the world so cold? Doesnt God even exist? WellI know one thing th ats certain; there is no longer true faith among thisplanet! Humanity, along with false ministers have killed God! God is truly dead-- His mother just stood in shock, watching him draw a picture of a madbishop, revealing and exploiting the meanings of Jesus Christ. This is thesadness that one who believes in God, can actually discover, and feel a sense ofbetrayal. There is many people who believe God is all Powerful, God is all good, and evilexist. These are the propositions that gives a religious man true faith. But ifGod was all powerful, then there wouldnt be no evil. God would simply destroy,or cast out evil within the world. And if God was all good, then why would someinnocent child be raped , and be left for dead? God is all powerful, and chosenot to save an innocent child. Who now is evil, and who now is good? And last isthe evil that burdens the lands all walk on. Its sad that evil exist among theworld, but evil still exist. Some people perceive evil as symbol of wrong doing, thus, creating and using good as a tool to confront, and destroying all ofevil thats around everyone. But if man is here to defeat evil all by himself,then why would God be needed? Evil exist only to explore the other sides ofwhats good. This is the confusion that one may encounter, if accepting thebeliefs of these propositions. .u5a8e6669567084b27dc6ac911712810a , .u5a8e6669567084b27dc6ac911712810a .postImageUrl , .u5a8e6669567084b27dc6ac911712810a .centered-text-area { min-height: 80px; position: relative; } .u5a8e6669567084b27dc6ac911712810a , .u5a8e6669567084b27dc6ac911712810a:hover , .u5a8e6669567084b27dc6ac911712810a:visited , .u5a8e6669567084b27dc6ac911712810a:active { border:0!important; } .u5a8e6669567084b27dc6ac911712810a .clearfix:after { content: ""; display: table; clear: both; } .u5a8e6669567084b27dc6ac911712810a { display: block; transition: background-color 250ms; webkit-transition: background-color 250ms; width: 100%; opacity: 1; transition: opacity 250ms; webkit-transition: opacity 250ms; background-color: #95A5A6; } .u5a8e6669567084b27dc6ac911712810a:active , .u5a8e6669567084b27dc6ac911712810a:hover { opacity: 1; transition: opacity 250ms; webkit-transition: opacity 250ms; background-color: #2C3E50; } .u5a8e6669567084b27dc6ac911712810a .centered-text-area { width: 100%; position: relative ; } .u5a8e6669567084b27dc6ac911712810a .ctaText { border-bottom: 0 solid #fff; color: #2980B9; font-size: 16px; font-weight: bold; margin: 0; padding: 0; text-decoration: underline; } .u5a8e6669567084b27dc6ac911712810a .postTitle { color: #FFFFFF; font-size: 16px; font-weight: 600; margin: 0; padding: 0; width: 100%; } .u5a8e6669567084b27dc6ac911712810a .ctaButton { background-color: #7F8C8D!important; color: #2980B9; border: none; border-radius: 3px; box-shadow: none; font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 26px; moz-border-radius: 3px; text-align: center; text-decoration: none; text-shadow: none; width: 80px; min-height: 80px; background: url(https://artscolumbia.org/wp-content/plugins/intelly-related-posts/assets/images/simple-arrow.png)no-repeat; position: absolute; right: 0; top: 0; } .u5a8e6669567084b27dc6ac911712810a:hover .ctaButton { background-color: #34495E!important; } .u5a8e6669567084b27dc6ac911712810a .centered-text { display: table; height: 80px; padding-left : 18px; top: 0; } .u5a8e6669567084b27dc6ac911712810a .u5a8e6669567084b27dc6ac911712810a-content { display: table-cell; margin: 0; padding: 0; padding-right: 108px; position: relative; vertical-align: middle; width: 100%; } .u5a8e6669567084b27dc6ac911712810a:after { content: ""; display: block; clear: both; } READ: Endangered Species EssayThe will to believe, and the life after death. The only thing man has going forhim, is will power. He can either use it to oppose, or accept God, it reallydoesnt matter. The will to believe in an afterlife is beautiful, and heartwarming. Its beauty is expressed in a sense of hoping for something beyond thisworld, and that is so capturing to souls that hunger for more. The entiremeaning of creating salvation within the soul is creative, and creativity isprobably the greatest assets a religious person can have. This is the creditthat all can present to the prodigies of God. Today in society the world still lives off the false faith of God, and now mustsociety change in order to become true. Man is true at heart, when the doubts ofGod are no more, and so must all turn away from he. Science today is God, andthere is no longer a need to pray. The evidence that opposes the existence ofGod is great, and still the people of God wonder why? Why must one choose todisbelieve in the existence of God? And why call for such an action? Thesolution to this query is, cause this world is a will to power- and nothingbesides(Nietzsche550)!!!!!!!!!!THE END

Morality Does Need Religion Essays - Ethics, Philosophy,

Morality Does Need Religion Morality Does Need Religion In his essay, C. Stephen Layman clashes two views of morality: that of the secular point of view and the religious point of view. Layman starts out by defining the two different stances. The secular point of view states that there is no after life and that morality was an emergent phenomenon. Also, the only goods are those that can be found on the earth. The religious perspective states that there is life after death, and therefore the ?goods? one receives do not end with death. Also, morality was not an emergent phenomenon because God has always been in existence and God guides morality. Layman uses these two definitions to argue that morality does not make sense from the secular point of view and that morality really does need religion. Layman starts out by asking the question ?do we desert the moral point of view if we defend morality on the grounds that it pays To answer this question, Layman states that we must start by defining the difference between the justification of an institution and the justification of a particular act within that institution. Layman uses the examples of etiquette and baseball to do this. He then asks the question that sets up the rest of his argument: ?does morality pay He then gives four reasons why morality doesn't pay from the secular perspective. In Layman's terms, from the secular perspective, it is unclear why moral concern must extend beyond one's society. Also, in the secular perspective, one can break morality rules in secret. It is here that Layman inserts the notion that one can't break rules in secret from the religious view because God sees all. Layman points out that morality doesn't pay for everyone in the secular perspective because there are those ?free-loaders? that will benefit although they are not moral. Layman's last argument is that from the secular point of view, morality doesn't benefit those that take risks involving death because earthly goods end with death. With all of these arguments, Layman sums up that morality cannot be justified from a secular point of view. To end his essay, Layman recounts the four secular moral questions and gives short responses from the religious side that simply report that morality needs religion. He says, ?It is not difficult to see how morality might pay if there is a God.? Ethics and Morals